Stop overTaxing Our People

As you likely know, Delaware’s Senior Senator Joe Biden has been selected as Senator Barack Obama’s running mate. It is a great day for Delaware and adds 35 years of experience to the ticket. Senator Biden will be a great apologist as seen below. Congratulations to the Biden family.

There is another side to the matter. As Senator Biden said, it is not merely about experience, but experience being right. Going back to Ronald Reagan’s time to the Present; Senator Biden was wrong on the MX missile, the Nuclear freeze, the Surge in Iraq, The Nuclear Freeze movement, supporting freedom fighters, and his support for the global tax–um global poverty initiative.

He is has been part of the problem with the energy crisis by opposing nuclear power, opposing oil shale development, opposing drilling off shore, and supporting debilitating taxes which would prevent investment in developing other reserves.

He has been good on some issues. He authored the Equal Access Act in 1984, the National Megan’s law in 1996, the Violence Against Women’s Act in 1994, and he pushed a spending limitation amendment on federal spending in 1983. He was the first Democrat to support overriding President Clintion’s partial birth abortion veto. Notice that most of his initiatives in Domestic policy are from another century. In today’s world, he has tended to obstruct and criticize. He filibustered the Homeland Security Department’s formation even though he supported it because the unions wanted a better deal. He tried to force a partition on Iraq even though that sovereign nation didn’t want it.
Senator Biden is a mixed bag. I am not sure that he will do much more than help solidify the base. According to Rasmussen most Americans who know him think he is a liberal (41%) and 43% have a favorable view vs. 38% with an unfavorable view. Nationally of the names being floated he had more support than anyone but Senator Clinton and fewer negatives than she has.

I view the Biden pick as a reasonable one. His opposition to partial birth abortion and abortion funding may take a little of the edge off of Senator Obama with Catholics that lean Democratic. America could do a lot worse in terms of foreign policy experience and knowledge. Most importantly, it assures America that an Obama administration will have a mix of qualified people and won’t be a bunch of inexperienced ideologues. His first pick was one which showed reasonable judgement even though pundits will talk about what this does to his message of change. The truth is we need both change and stability. Senator Obama showed that he is not a prisoner to marketing, but thinking about governing.

With that said, by not picking someone who could give him a red state like Bayh or Kaine, he took a big chance. Saturday, August 23rd may be the day that Senator McCain won if he chooses wisely.

It’s Monday and time for the weekly Presidential update. Energy is the big issue in America. The bad news for Senator Obama is that more Americans now trust Senator McCain on the issue. The Obama people have gotten the message and the Senator has made a major address today on the issue. The race is a dead heat. For the first time since June 3, Rasmussen reports Senator McCain is in the lead among leaners, but it is statistically insignificant. Senator Obama’s dollar bill remark hurt his favorability ratings, they are down to 51% from a 54 to 57% range. The majority viewed the remark as racist, including a stunning 44% of African Americans, which seems rather strong. Racial would seem more accurate. It seems 44 years after legal segregation was ended, the subject of race is still a sensative issue in America.

Americans are skeptical of a windfall profits tax because they know it won’t produce more energy, just hurt stockholders (which are themselves). It has the support of 2/3’s of Democrats but is rejected by everyone else. Americans also don’t believe it is realistic to say that we will replace oil in the next 10 years. The all of the above approach has majority support. Drill, nuclear, wind, and new alternatives all have majority support.

The Republicans are now gaining momentum in the Senate races. The long shot that the Democrats will gain 8 or 9 senate seats seems off the table. 2 to 5 seems more likely now. Virginia and New Mexico look like good Democrat pick ups. Alaska isn’t looking great right now either for Republicans, but the primary later this month could change that dynamic. New Hampshire is closing to within a few points. If Sununu can keep hammering the energy issue, he could cheat the the Democratic trend in New Hampshire. Now that Governor Ventura has decided not to run Norm Coleman looks as if he may hold on to the Senate seat. The Republicans have pulled ahead in a Democrat seat in LA and are an outside shot in NJ, but the Democrats can concentrate their resources to hold those seats.

The latest McCain ad pulls no punches. The answer to the question of why are gas prices so high–Obama. No hints there.

It is an interesting approach. Senator McCain had always talked about his comprehensive energy plan. This one is about drilling pure and simple. It gives an important message, but is it too simplistic or does it finally cut through all of the clutter? I will be watching the polls when I find out where this airs. If it expands beyond a few states, we will know that it works.

I think the Democrats have been caught sleeping on what will be the issue of 2008. This may be the day that they lost the chance to have the gains they thought would happen in Congress and maybe even the Presidency. The Congressional generic ballot lead of Democrats has shrunk the last 5 weeks and is in single digits according to Rasmussen.

I think this election will come down to 4 points and the relative advantage on each. They are energy policy, economic policy, national security, and desire for a change in leadership. Senator John McCain is more trusted with national security. Senator Obama represents change. Polls show the other two issues are awash. McCain is seeking to continue his momentum on the energy issue and pressing for an advantage. With it the economy moves as well. It is why the election is so close (McCain 42% and Obama 43%). It will be fun to see an election fought on the issues.

I have been watching Senator McCain climb up this week in Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls. I took my time pointing it out because it could have been a statistical fluke. Now it seems real especially when I look at the underlying numbers. Senator McCain is trusted on the economy and has pulled even on energy. The Democrats extreme position on energy is killing their Congressional numbers and is starting to weigh down Senator Obama.

The message is getting through. Drill here, drill now. Get serious about alternatives. Encourage innovation. Look at the excessive speculative bubble caused by the margin changes. We have to do it all.

Senator McCain is now tied in the most recent national polls and is within single digits in all of them. He shows the most upside potential in the choice of a running mate.

Furthermore, white evangelicals — who typically make up a quarter or more of a winning Republican presidential coalition — seem especially pessimistic. McCain is substantially ahead among these voters, but only 44% of white evangelicals said they were satisfied with their choices this election, compared with 72% at this time in 2004.

All of these trends suggest that McCain would be most helped by choosing a young running mate who would inspire evangelicals, but there is no obvious holder of that political résumé.

I would disagree. Can you say Mike Huckabee–Detroit Freepress? How about America’s most popular governor, according to Rasmussen, Sarah Palin of Alaska who is a young, evangelical, and a woman who can appeal to working class voters?

There was a great article on real clear politics on Mike Huckabee taking from J. C. Watts, Ken Blackwell, and another contributor. You just have to read it. Governor Huckabee should be on the ticket or at least the next GOP Chairman and the number two slot which actually goes out there should be Lt. Gov. Michael Steel. These two men are where the GOP needs to go. It needs to be a people’s party again.

It has been a week of comebacks.  First Tiger Woods, then the Giants, and finally we see Mike Huckabee roll back into contention (he was never out unless you bought the line of some blabbing heads).  The man wins primaries. 

 Unfortunately, enough people bought the line that we need to solidify behind Romney because Huckabee doesn’t have enough money that MO, OK, the like narrowly went to McCain.  Remember, vote for the best candidate and shape the odds –don’t vote to play the odds.