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Huckabee Number One in Nation. 5 December, 2007

Posted by David Anderson in Election 2008.
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Update: Breaking News 5Dec07: Huckabee new national leader 20% to 17 % –Thompson sinks to 5th. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

He is now polling even with Mrs. Clinton even though a quarter of people haven’t heard of him. That means he can move up, but not down (barring some political disaster). The latest poll puts him even with Mayor Giuliani. Welcome to the big leagues Governor.

Read this quote from the Rasmussen Reports daily tracking Commentary from 4 Dec 07.

“With less than a month to go before the Iowa caucuses, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that Rudy Giuliani has fallen back in the pack in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Giuliani’s support has fallen to 18% and four other candidates are within six percentage points of the lead. Mike Huckabee is enjoying an amazing surge and now shares the top spot with Giuliani at 18%. Close behind are John McCain at 14%, Fred Thompson at 13%, and Mitt Romney at 12%. Ron Paul attracts 7% of Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide and no other Republican candidate reaches 2% (see recent daily numbers).

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Clinton continues to lose ground as well. The former First Lady now attracts 35% of the vote, down from 41% a week ago and 43% two weeks ago. Today’s result matches the lowest level of support recorded for Clinton since Rasmussen Reports began daily tracking in mid-July (see recent daily numbers).”

Back to me. A lot can happen in thirty days. This is only today’s snapshot.

It seems Gov. Mike Huckabee is experiencing a bounce before a vote is even cast. This is the first time this year that Mayor Giuliani has not lead the field by himself. That is significant. It remains to be seen if this is a surge or a bounce. I vote for surge. He is unique in his issues yet bedrock on core Republican values.

That story is the reported one. What is even more intriguing is how Mayor Giuliani’s support is evaporating as many expected. The idea that he was the only electable Republican has been shattered. He will have to retool his campaign on the fly. That is something doable for him, but only time will tell if he will.

Gov. Romney is holding the ground he gained after the last debate in the national polls though his grip is weakening in the early states. You can almost hear the cheering of the national press corps over the latter fact for whatever reason. I think they hate the Governor because he left their side on some social issues, yet it is the right that is suppose to be intolerant. Inspite of the negative media, he is still right in the pack. He has plenty of money and a crack team. His speech Thursday could change the dynamic or get lost in the Christmas clutter. We shall see.

Senator McCain is back from the political dead. He is right in the mix. The surge has vindicated him. He staked his political fortune on principle and is reaping a nice return on investment.

Senator Thompson has lost more momentum than anyone. It has been sustained and shows no sign of reversal. Nonetheless he is still right in the pack. This campaign has shown it can change in a week.
All five are within 6 points and Ron Paul is still behind them but now polling credible numbers almost to the double digits. His support is likely greater than polling because his people are not normal likely voters nor answer house phones. Can he climb over 5 people to get to the top with his unorthodox campaign?

I think this will be the most interesting election in decades– since 1968. It is wide open on both sides. The Republican side is now completely fluid.

I just hope the issues don’t get lost in the coverage of the horse race. Taxes, trade, immigration, health policy, energy policy, and defense policy all still matter. Now that we are free from “the don’t throw your vote away mentality” can we vote for the best person for our future?



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