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Mid Atlantic Regional Political round up election Bombshell edition 31 October, 2009

Posted by David Anderson in around the region, Election 2009/2010.
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New Jersey People in New Jersey are excited about the I-95 world series, but according to Rasmussen polling, 67% are even more engaged with the off year election. 3 candidates have a significant following.Third choice, Chris Daggett, has a 37% approval and 20% of the people considered voting for him. The good news Chris Christie is that the opposition is now starting to focus on getting rid of Corzine. Daggett’s numbers are now down to 8% and Christie has a small lead of 3 points which is right at the margin of error. It will come down to turnout. Christie has 7 point lead among those who are determined to vote and has even 28% of those who somewhat approve of President Obama while keeping a vast majority of the 45% who disapprove.

Corzine is in trouble because 60% of the state does not think that he deserves reelection and even after 30 million of ads he still has a 54% disapproval.

Virginia is looking like a GOP sweep,the state senate may even flip giving the GOP the entire government including all three statewide offices. Currently the GOP holds two (picking up the Lt. Gov when Kaine won–pay attention Delaware GOP) and the state house by a narrow margin. All I can say is if it does happen, do not sit on your lead. Do something with it. Solve a couple of problems and you will stay in power. It worked with the Congress. The GOP accomplished a great deal under Gingrich, Armey, Delay, and Kasich. Then they just sat there resting on their laurels after 3 of the 4 left. Success without a successor leads to failure. First let’s make it happen the only poll that matters is election day.

New York Besides the Yankees, the people of New York are paying attention to a couple of elections. NYC elections are next Tuesday. Bloomberg has passed Corzine to become the all time champion spender of personal funds in political races. It looks as if the Independent will win reelection to a third term. Republicans are poised to pick up a couple of seats in Queens.

Let’s get to the special election that is fascinating the nation. New York 23rd has a new Development with Dede Scozzafava suspending her campaign, according to the Watertown Daily Times. The Bombshell announcement reads in part.

“The opportunity to run as the Republican and Independence Party candidate to represent the 23rd District has been and remains one of the greatest honors of my life. During the past several months, as I’ve traveled the district, meeting and talking with voters about the issues that matter most to them, I’ve been overwhelmed by the amount of support I’ve received as I sought to serve as their voice in Washington. However, as Winston Churchill once said, Democracy can be a fickle employer, and the road to public office is not always a smooth one.

“In recent days, polls have indicated that my chances of winning this election are not as strong as we would like them to be. The reality that I’ve come to accept is that in today’s political arena, you must be able to back up your message with money—and as I’ve been outspent on both sides, I’ve been unable to effectively address many of the charges that have been made about my record. But as I’ve said from the start of this campaign, this election is not about me, it’s about the people of this district. And, as always, today I will do what I believe serves their interests best.

“It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my party will emerge stronger and our district and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations.

“On Election Day my name will appear on the ballot, but victory is unlikely. To those who support me – and to those who choose not to – I offer my sincerest thanks. Dede

3 days before the election it is anyone’s guess on how this will play. Will her hardcore supporters stay home or vote for the Democrat? How many of the people who were just supporting her because she had a Republican label will now go to Hoffman? The fact that she refused to endorse anyone leaves this race up in the air. If this happened 2 weeks ago, it would be a Hoffman victory. MSNBC just released a story and they claim it is good news for Hoffman. We shall see.

Delaware The First State is lining up for 2010 with my prediction that our appointed state treasurer would run coming to pass leaving Chip Flowers (Democratic operative) to rethink his plans. Senator Bonini has to spell “I am in it to stay” for the Delaware Grapevine. The GOP has solidifyied around him for Treasurer. Everyone is still awaiting AG Biden’s decision. Ferris Wharton is said to interested at a second shot at AG.

The state had none election related news. The Army Corps of Engineers is considering defying the state and deepening the Delaware River without a Delaware permit. The state will be the site of a new hybrid line which will take over the old Boxwood GM plant. Governor Markell is excited about his first green jobs victory.

Maryland O’Malley is boring, please get a new governor. He lost his bid to drive out investment when the Public Service Commission decided that it has no business setting CEO pay for utilities which cleared the way for a French company to invest 4.5 billion dollars in Maryland utilities. As usual the Eastern Shore gets shorted. This time with H1N1 vaccines.

Pennsylvania Philadephia is having its elections this year. My bold prediction is that Democrats will win as expected except for the City’s distirct attorney where Republicans are making a big push. Whether it will be strong enough remains to be seen.

In Delaware County, Democrats are pushing to crackthe GOP stronghold. President Obama carried the county, but Republicans still dominate 41 of 49 townships and the county offices. Since these towns and the county still works on the patronage system, who wins could have statewide implications. This is a swing area. If Republicans lose it, Democrats will be able to hire people to keep it and get out votes up and down the ballot. Conceivablely a Presidential election could be decided in that one county just like the 1976 election was decided in Ohio or 2000 was in Florida.

There is an effort to change the 12 year old charter school law. We shall be watching it.

Table games are still in negotiation. Governor Rendell is getting impatient.

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